The Future of the Air Passenger

The aviation industry has come a long way since its inception in the early 20th century and with that, the evolution of the air passenger. This article explores that evolution, beginning with the early days of commercial aviation through today and envisions how the future could unfold including how changing passenger demographics and behaviors will influence the growth and shape of markets.

Passenger needs and preferences have evolved since the early days of commercial aviation. In the early 1900s, air travel has transformed from basic ticket counters and waiting areas on the apron to the development of terminal facilities resembling luxury shopping malls. A brief history on the impacts of the industry is depicted in the following timeline.

Source: Landrum & Brown, 2023.

There are five factors – price, convenience & experience, technology, environmental, safety & security – that we believe influence the preferences of today’s air travelers. Airports and airlines that understand these factors and prioritize the needs and preferences of their passengers will be more likely to succeed in this highly competitive industry. These factors can individually carry more influence than others depending on the location of the airport, socioeconomic events (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic), as well as passenger characteristics such as age, generation, and wealth.

The five key factors that influence passengers and drive passenger behaviors are illustrated in the below graphic.

Source: Landrum & Brown, 2023.

Close attention to these five factors by industry professionals (planners and engineers) has led to increased functionality and design of airport facilities. Airports have become colossal complexes focused on fulfilling each of these key factors for passengers. All five of these key factors have contributed to industry advancements. Understanding historical trends and current factors that influence passenger behavior are critical to airport planning for future facilities.

Predicting the characteristics that will define the future airline passenger is difficult as it will depend on a variety of considerations, which can be categorized into three main areas of passenger influence:

• Demographics
• Technology
• Economic and Societal Shifts

Many of the key factors seen today in passengers will carry forward into the future while others will continue to evolve.

While it is challenging to predict specific geographical population growth patterns, airport development has significantly impacted population growth in many regions, particularly in geographies previously isolated or difficult to access. And population is growing overall.

The population of the U.S. has grown by 8% from 307 million residents in 2011 to 330 million residents in 2021 with many states seeing double digit percentage growth over the last decade. During the same period, the world population has increased at an even faster rate, by approximately 12%.

Sources: United States Census Bureau. American Community Survey Demographic and Housing Estimates 2011 to 2021 (Table DP05). Retrieved from https://www.data.census.gov. Accessed April 2023. Landrum & Brown, 2023.

Given these growth trends, it is important for airports and airlines to consider the evolving social, technological, and geographical needs of their passengers. The changing nature of the world’s population will be a significant driver of airport growth and passenger travel demand. Evolving urbanization and larger elderly populations that require special services are prime examples of shifts that could lead to travel preference changes.

Population growth and urbanization patterns are predicated by a complex set of social, economic, and environmental factors, which dictate geographical population distributions globally. Even though technological advancements such as remote work and virtual communications appears to have renewed (in the U.S., in particular) a shift away from urban centers in recent years – a trend that started after WWII but began to slow at the turn of the century, other factors such as climate change and natural disasters may make some areas less habitable in the future, particularly coastal regions. Globally, urbanization is predicted to continue its rise as more people around the world move from rural areas in search of better economic opportunities and quality of life. All of that put together makes the prediction murky, but the certainty is the constant change affecting which airports passengers choose and where demand will rise or fall.

The U.S. along with other countries, will continue to experience a demographic shift due to the aging population. As stated in the L&B LAB from May of 2022, Aging and Aviation,  two billion persons will be over the age of 60 by 2050, estimating a daily retirement count at 10,000 citizens annually over the next decade in the U.S. alone. These individuals are healthier and travel more than previous generations; however, they don’t have the same wants and desires as those who came before them – they are less inhibited in their spending and have a desire to travel more.

Baby boomers (born 1946-1964) have more time and wealth to spare than younger generations and have differing values that will impact their decisions on air travel. Providing amenities at airports attuned to the needs of these individuals will be key. Regions where aging populations are higher, typically warmer weather climate areas, will need to ensure facilities can accommodate this influx of passengers. Investing in their wants and purchasing habits will also prove beneficial to industry stakeholders offering tailored services for these individuals.

The younger generations: Millennials (born 1981-1996), Generation Z (born 1997-2012), and soon Generation Alpha (born 2013-2025) will also continue to influence future passenger trends as these generations seek out and spend more on personalization and value-added services such as entertainment, loyalty programs, lounge access, technology features, and eco-friendly options. In the U.S. Millennials and Generation Z make up 30 percent of the annual household spending. As younger generations become wage earners, they are allocating more to their transportation spending than previous generations even though they have lower overall incomes.

The evolution of generational characteristics, along with population shifts have the potential to impact future airport growth globally. Regardless of the generation, demographics will play a large role that will be unique to each region or airport based on the surrounding population. These factors will impact airport efficiency and passenger level of service.

Source: Landrum & Brown, 2023.

New technological advancements, including reemerging technologies like supersonic commercial flights, will play a major role in the evolution of the aviation industry, and that’s only escalating. Over the next 10 to 20 years, technology will shape the industry in many ways, and this will impact how passengers perceive air travel. Technology is expected to be a key driver of the other four factors (price, environmental, convenience, and safety and security) as outline below.

Source: Landrum & Brown, 2023.

The behaviors and desires of air passengers have evolved substantially over the last century, driving the development of airports along the way. The airport industry will need to keep pace with societal and technological change that will influence air passenger wants and needs – which will be challenging. Airports that conduct passenger market assessments will find much success in determining how to grow and cater to the unique wants and needs of the passengers they serve. Airports and the aviation industry must also become more resilient so they are able to adapt/respond to many of the challenges they will face over the coming decades.